Forecasting spikes in electricity prices

TM Christensen, AS Hurn, KA Lindsay - International Journal of Forecasting, 2012 - Elsevier
In many electricity markets, retailers purchase electricity at an unregulated spot price and
sell to consumers at a heavily regulated price. Consequently, the occurrence of spikes in the …

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

AE Clements, AS Hurn, Z Li - European Journal of Operational Research, 2016 - Elsevier
The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading
activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple …

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

AE Clements, R Herrera, AS Hurn - Energy Economics, 2015 - Elsevier
Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market
participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability …

Geology or economics? Testing models of irreversible investment using North Sea oil data

AS Hurn, RE Wright - The Economic Journal, 1994 - academic.oup.com
This paper tests the main implications of models of irreversible investment using data from
operations in the oil fields in the North Sea. Discrete-time hazard regression models are used …

Seeing the wood for the trees: A critical evaluation of methods to estimate the parameters of stochastic differential equations

AS Hurn, JI Jeisman, KA Lindsay - Journal of Financial …, 2007 - academic.oup.com
Maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of stochastic differential equations are
consistent and asymptotically efficient, but unfortunately difficult to obtain if a closed-form …

On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations

AS Hurn, KA Lindsay, VL Martin - Journal of Time Series …, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
A method for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated
maximum likelihood is presented. This method is feasible whenever the underlying SDE …

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

R Becker, AE Clements, MB Doolan, AS Hurn - International Journal of …, 2015 - Elsevier
Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood
as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss …

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

AS Hurn, KA Lindsay, AJ McClelland - Journal of Business & …, 2015 - Taylor & Francis
This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the
standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps …

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

AE Clements, AS Hurn, VV Volkov - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2015 - Elsevier
This paper considers the transmission of volatility in global foreign exchange, equity and
bond markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework which includes measures of realised …

Strategic bidding and rebidding in electricity markets

AE Clements, AS Hurn, Z Li - Energy Economics, 2016 - Elsevier
Successful deregulation in electricity markets depends crucially on the ability of market
regulation to promote and maintain free competition. There are, however, important physical …