Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting

MR Nieto, E Ruiz - International Journal of Forecasting, 2016 - Elsevier
The interest in forecasting the Value at Risk (VaR) has been growing over the last two
decades, due to the practical relevance of this risk measure for financial and insurance …

A review of backtesting for value at risk

Y Zhang, S Nadarajah - Communications in Statistics-Theory and …, 2018 - Taylor & Francis
There have been many backtesting methods proposed for value at risk. Yet they have rarely
been applied in practice. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of all of the recent …

Backtesting expected shortfall: accounting for tail risk

Z Du, JC Escanciano - Management Science, 2017 - pubsonline.informs.org
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BIS) has recently sanctioned expected
shortfall (ES) as the market risk measure to be used for banking regulatory purposes …

Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables

DK Nguyen, T Walther - Journal of Forecasting, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
This paper investigates the time‐varying volatility patterns of some major commodities as
well as the potential factors that drive their long‐term volatility component. For this purpose …

Risk models-at-risk

CM Boucher, J Daníelsson, PS Kouontchou… - Journal of Banking & …, 2014 - Elsevier
The experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious concerns about the
accuracy of standard risk measures as tools for the quantification of extreme downward …

The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models

G Colletaz, C Hurlin, C Pérignon - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013 - Elsevier
This paper presents a new method to validate risk models: the Risk Map. This method jointly
accounts for the number and the magnitude of extreme losses and graphically summarizes …

Backtesting marginal expected shortfall and related systemic risk measures

D Banulescu-Radu, C Hurlin, J Leymarie… - Management …, 2021 - pubsonline.informs.org
This paper proposes an original approach for backtesting systemic risk measures. This
backtesting approach makes it possible to assess the systemic risk measure forecasts used …

Pitfalls in backtesting historical simulation VaR models

JC Escanciano, P Pei - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2012 - Elsevier
Historical Simulation (HS) and its variant, the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), are the
most popular Value-at-Risk forecast methods at commercial banks. These forecast methods …

[HTML][HTML] Backtesting value-at-risk: from dynamic quantile to dynamic binary tests

EI Dumitrescu*, C Hurlin**, V Pham*** - Finance, 2012 - cairn.info
In this paper we propose a new tool for backtesting that examines the quality of Value-at-
Risk (VaR) forecasts. To date, the most distinguished regression-based backtest, proposed …

Powerful backtests for historical simulation expected shortfall models

Z Du, P Pei, X Wang, T Yang - Journal of Business & Economic …, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract Since 2016, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has regulated banks to
switch from a Value-at-Risk (VaR) to an Expected Shortfall (ES) approach to measuring the …