Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call-option price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraints

MR Fengler, LY Hin - Journal of Econometrics, 2015 - Elsevier
We suggest a semi-nonparametric estimator for the call-option price surface. The estimator
is a bivariate tensor-product B-spline. To enforce no-arbitrage constraints across strikes and …

Leveraging prices from credit and equity option markets for portfolio risk management

JF Bégin, M Boudreault… - Journal of Futures Markets, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
This study presents a firm‐specific methodology for extracting implied default intensities and
recovery rates jointly from unit recovery claim prices—backed by out‐of‐the‐money put …

Option-implied probability distributions: How reliable? How jagged?

M Taboga - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2016 - Elsevier
Estimates of option-implied probability distributions are routinely used in central banks, as
well as in other institutions, but their reliability is often difficult to assess. To address this …

Estimating option-implied risk-neutral densities: a novel parametric approach

G Orosi - Journal of Derivatives, 2015 - search.proquest.com
Abstract" Practitioner Black-Scholes"--the BS equation with a different implied volatility (IV)
for each option--is in conflict with the underlying theory from which the model is derived …

Equity option implied probability of default and equity recovery rate

BY Chang, G Orosi - Journal of Futures Markets, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We
show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that …

What do we know about individual equity options?

A Bernales, T Verousis, N Voukelatos… - Journal of Futures …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
This paper examines the empirical literature on individual equity options, discussing results
in areas of consensus, showing findings in areas of disagreement and providing a guide for …

Monte Carlo analysis of methods for extracting risk‐neutral densities with affine jump diffusions

S Lu - Journal of Futures Markets, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
This article compares several widely used and recently developed methods to extract risk‐
neutral densities (RNDs) from option prices in terms of estimation accuracy. It shows that the …

Bankruptcy risk induced by career concerns of regulators

JA Cole, G Cadogan - Finance Research Letters, 2014 - Elsevier
We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human
capital beta signal (s) in a firm's capital structure. This can enhance her compensation at the …

A simple method for extracting the probability of default from American put option prices

BY Chang, G Orosi - Journal of Futures Markets, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We present a novel method for extracting the risk‐neutral probability of default (PD) of a firm
from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed by Carr …

Extracting option-implied probability of default: A novel method

GG Orosi - Available at SSRN 3448452, 2019 - papers.ssrn.com
In this paper, we present a novel method to extract the risk-neutral probability of default from
American put option prices. Under the assumptions of Carr and Wu (2011), we derive a …